Jobs in 2035: which occupations will shrink and which will grow
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects employment for each occupation from 2025 to 2035. Of the 186 occupations on this site that it covers, the BLS projects 40 to shrink and 146 to grow or hold steady.
None of them is projected to disappear. The projections describe the United States only and assume technology keeps advancing at its usual pace. For several shrinking occupations the BLS names AI as a reason; the last column marks them.
Next to each projection is our generative-AI exposure index, which comes from separate datasets. The two are only loosely related: many highly exposed occupations are still projected to grow, because AI can change how the work is done without reducing how many people do it.
Exposure and the 2035 outlook at a glance
Number of occupations. “Higher exposure” means the top half of the occupations on this site (an exposure index of 73 or more).
Projected to shrink by 2035 (40 occupations)
Largest projected decline first. Change in US employment from 2025 to 2035, as projected by the BLS.
| Job | US jobs 2025–35 | Employed in the US, 2025 | Generative-AI exposure | BLS cites AI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Entry Clerk | -25.5% | 131,800 | 93 | Yes – see why |
| Telemarketer | -21.4% | 60,900 | 93 | |
| Bank Teller | -13.2% | 339,200 | 73 | |
| Programmer | -7.3% | 110,800 | 96 | Yes – see why |
| Retail Cashier | -6.5% | 3,106,300 | 75 | |
| Administrative Assistant | -6.0% | 1,889,800 | 91 | Yes – see why |
| Office Clerk | -6.0% | 2,600,000 | 89 | Yes – see why |
| Journalist | -5.9% | 47,100 | 93 | |
| Water Treatment Operator | -5.7% | 131,000 | 27 | |
| Bookkeeper | -5.6% | 1,532,400 | 78 | |
| Claims Adjuster | -5.5% | 376,100 | 77 | Yes – see why |
| Customer Support | -5.3% | 2,666,000 | 99 | Yes – see why |
| Call Center Agent | -5.3% | 2,666,000 | 99 | Yes – see why |
| Power Plant Operator | -5.1% | 29,800 | 39 | |
| Fisherman | -4.2% | 28,200 | 17 | |
| System Administrator | -4.1% | 323,600 | 88 | Yes – see why |
| Insurance Underwriter | -3.8% | 125,600 | 74 | |
| IT Support Specialist | -3.5% | 750,600 | 94 | Yes – see why |
| Farmer | -3.4% | 788,700 | 32 | |
| Sound Engineer | -3.1% | 15,000 | 41 | Yes – see why |
| Illustrator | -2.9% | 28,900 | 62 | Yes – see why |
| Model | -2.1% | 4,200 | 59 | Yes – see why |
| Graphic Designer | -1.7% | 253,100 | 82 | Yes – see why |
| Receptionist | -1.7% | 947,500 | 90 | Yes – see why |
| Scheduler | -1.3% | 392,100 | 81 | |
| Editor | -1.1% | 105,000 | 94 | |
| Miner | -1.0% | 3,200 | 19 | |
| Sales Representative | -0.9% | 1,279,400 | 93 | Yes – see why |
| Proofreader | -0.9% | 8,500 | 91 | |
| Photographer | -0.7% | 145,000 | 70 | Yes – see why |
| Teacher | -0.4% | 1,419,300 | 61 | |
| Paralegal | -0.3% | 404,900 | 64 | Yes – see why |
| Content Writer | -0.3% | 140,300 | 95 | Yes – see why |
| Copywriter | -0.3% | 140,300 | 95 | Yes – see why |
| Retail Salesperson | -0.3% | 3,998,100 | 79 | |
| Teaching Assistant | -0.3% | 1,463,000 | 48 | |
| Animator | -0.3% | 51,900 | 76 | Yes – see why |
| Tutor | -0.2% | 208,400 | 77 | |
| Court Reporter | -0.1% | 19,900 | 85 | Yes – see why |
| Database Administrator | -0.1% | 75,000 | 92 |
Projected to grow or hold steady (146 occupations)
Largest projected growth first. Change in US employment from 2025 to 2035, as projected by the BLS.
| Job | US jobs 2025–35 | Employed in the US, 2025 | Generative-AI exposure | BLS cites AI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Scientist | +34.6% | 275,600 | 95 | |
| Data Analyst | +34.6% | 275,600 | 95 | |
| Renewable Energy Technician | +29.5% | 11,800 | 27 | |
| Machine Learning Engineer | +21.8% | 38,600 | 80 | Yes – see why |
| Cybersecurity Analyst | +21.0% | 192,900 | 87 | Yes – see why |
| Mechanic | +17.8% | 446,900 | 38 | |
| Supply Chain Analyst | +17.6% | 255,100 | 79 | |
| Logistics Coordinator | +17.6% | 255,100 | 79 | |
| Medical Assistant | +12.9% | 833,900 | 46 | |
| Industrial Engineer | +12.4% | 365,100 | 74 | |
| Cook | +12.1% | 1,417,500 | 44 | |
| Therapist | +11.9% | 283,700 | 57 | |
| Psychologist | +11.7% | 81,300 | 75 | |
| Taxi Driver | +11.5% | 204,200 | 45 | |
| Mechanical Engineer | +11.2% | 298,500 | 75 | |
| HVAC Technician | +10.9% | 440,900 | 41 | |
| Training Specialist | +10.8% | 472,500 | 85 | Yes – see why |
| Software Engineer | +10.2% | 1,717,800 | 85 | |
| Game Developer | +10.2% | 1,717,800 | 85 | |
| AI Engineer | +10.2% | 1,717,800 | 85 | |
| DevOps Engineer | +10.2% | 1,717,800 | 85 | |
| Business Analyst | +10.1% | 1,077,100 | 88 | |
| Management Consultant | +10.1% | 1,077,100 | 88 | |
| Electrical Engineer | +9.9% | 199,700 | 58 | |
| Veterinarian | +9.4% | 91,100 | 47 | |
| Electrician | +9.2% | 821,000 | 36 | |
| Construction Manager | +9.1% | 609,100 | 65 | |
| Veterinary Assistant | +9.1% | 132,100 | 28 | |
| Warehouse Operator | +8.9% | 2,804,300 | 34 | |
| Flight Attendant | +8.8% | 133,700 | 56 | |
| Social Worker | +8.5% | 194,800 | 66 | |
| Pilot | +8.3% | 104,600 | 39 | |
| Astronomer | +7.8% | 2,400 | 81 | |
| Network Engineer | +7.7% | 181,800 | 86 | |
| Fitness Trainer | +7.3% | 388,400 | 39 | |
| Construction Worker | +7.3% | 1,489,300 | 19 | |
| Financial Analyst | +7.2% | 377,200 | 91 | |
| Psychiatrist | +7.2% | 30,000 | 55 | |
| Physicist | +7.2% | 23,200 | 84 | |
| Social Media Manager | +7.0% | 952,700 | 94 | |
| Market Research Analyst | +7.0% | 952,700 | 94 | |
| Marketing Specialist | +7.0% | 952,700 | 94 | |
| Advertising Specialist | +7.0% | 952,700 | 94 | |
| SEO Specialist | +7.0% | 952,700 | 94 | |
| Marketing Manager | +6.9% | 421,600 | 82 | |
| Product Manager | +6.9% | 421,600 | 82 | |
| Plumber | +6.8% | 510,600 | 28 | |
| Project Manager | +6.7% | 1,094,300 | 70 | |
| Agricultural Scientist | +6.7% | 19,900 | 70 | |
| Chef | +6.6% | 220,300 | 44 | |
| HR Specialist | +6.4% | 939,700 | 85 | |
| Civil Engineer | +6.4% | 380,600 | 65 | |
| Recruiter | +6.4% | 939,700 | 85 | |
| Chemist | +6.4% | 84,900 | 77 | |
| Delivery Driver | +6.3% | 1,068,500 | 41 | |
| Tour Guide | +6.3% | 62,200 | 60 | |
| Supply Chain Manager | +6.1% | 228,100 | 74 | |
| Warehouse Manager | +6.1% | 228,100 | 74 | |
| Athletic Coach | +6.1% | 298,800 | 48 | |
| Environmental Scientist | +6.1% | 93,400 | 75 | |
| UX Designer | +6.0% | 132,700 | 90 | Yes – see why |
| Anthropologist | +6.0% | 10,200 | 80 | |
| Compensation Analyst | +6.0% | 118,100 | 72 | |
| Procurement Specialist | +6.0% | 516,100 | 70 | |
| Surveying Technician | +5.8% | 58,800 | 59 | |
| Barista | +5.8% | 3,855,900 | 39 | |
| Software Tester | +5.7% | 187,600 | 95 | Yes – see why |
| Dentist | +5.7% | 141,900 | 33 | |
| Paramedic | +5.7% | 102,200 | 32 | |
| Elevator Technician | +5.7% | 24,700 | 22 | |
| Nurse | +5.6% | 3,465,400 | 54 | |
| Human Resources Manager | +5.5% | 224,900 | 54 | |
| Baker | +5.5% | 262,400 | 27 | |
| Aircraft Mechanic | +5.4% | 140,000 | 23 | |
| Pharmacist | +5.2% | 325,200 | 72 | |
| Civil Drafter | +5.2% | 104,100 | 63 | |
| Geologist | +5.1% | 25,400 | 68 | |
| Cloud Engineer | +5.1% | 471,200 | 91 | |
| Accountant | +5.0% | 1,595,200 | 84 | |
| Auditor | +5.0% | 1,595,200 | 84 | |
| Operations Manager | +5.0% | 3,599,000 | 63 | |
| Automotive Technician | +5.0% | 825,800 | 29 | |
| Bartender | +5.0% | 762,600 | 43 | |
| Museum Curator | +4.9% | 14,200 | 86 | |
| Lawyer | +4.7% | 863,700 | 73 | |
| Tax Preparer | +4.7% | 95,800 | 88 | |
| Economist | +4.7% | 18,600 | 92 | |
| Biologist | +4.7% | 59,600 | 80 | |
| Prosecutor | +4.7% | 863,700 | 73 | |
| Research Assistant | +4.4% | 89,500 | 71 | |
| Architect | +4.3% | 124,600 | 69 | |
| Bus Driver | +4.1% | 166,400 | 39 | |
| Surgeon | +4.0% | 27,500 | 39 | |
| Film Director | +4.0% | 181,000 | 68 | |
| Music Producer | +4.0% | 181,000 | 68 | |
| Ship Captain | +4.0% | 41,300 | 42 | |
| Customer Success Manager | +3.9% | 1,157,600 | 83 | |
| Urban Planner | +3.9% | 45,800 | 85 | |
| Carpenter | +3.9% | 889,700 | 19 | |
| Sustainability Consultant | +3.9% | 1,157,600 | 80 | |
| Web Developer | +3.8% | 87,400 | 97 | Yes – see why |
| Sociologist | +3.8% | 2,700 | 90 | |
| Truck Driver | +3.8% | 2,221,200 | 39 | |
| Hotel Manager | +3.8% | 54,800 | 70 | |
| Waste Management Specialist | +3.8% | 436,400 | 69 | |
| Video Editor | +3.7% | 39,400 | 68 | |
| Property Manager | +3.7% | 460,400 | 67 | |
| Robotics Engineer | +3.7% | 166,700 | 68 | |
| Energy Engineer | +3.7% | 166,700 | 68 | |
| Firefighter | +3.7% | 355,300 | 25 | |
| Police Officer | +3.5% | 693,200 | 47 | |
| Archivist | +3.4% | 10,300 | 83 | |
| Radiologist | +3.4% | 28,700 | 67 | |
| Insurance Agent | +3.3% | 572,600 | 86 | Yes – see why |
| Doctor | +3.3% | 114,300 | 51 | |
| Historian | +3.0% | 3,800 | 82 | |
| School Counselor | +2.9% | 389,500 | 72 | |
| Career Counselor | +2.9% | 389,500 | 77 | |
| Judge | +2.8% | 25,300 | 55 | |
| Interior Designer | +2.7% | 97,100 | 57 | |
| Ship Engineer | +2.7% | 8,800 | 27 | |
| Laboratory Technician | +2.7% | 343,000 | 37 | |
| Librarian | +2.6% | 142,300 | 85 | |
| Meteorologist | +2.6% | 10,700 | 85 | |
| Quality Assurance Specialist | +2.5% | 602,000 | 47 | |
| Welder | +2.4% | 437,700 | 18 | |
| Translator | +2.0% | 73,900 | 98 | |
| Interpreter | +2.0% | 73,900 | 98 | |
| Professor | +2.0% | 183,200 | 75 | |
| Waiter | +2.0% | 2,284,400 | 51 | |
| Real Estate Agent | +1.7% | 427,000 | 77 | |
| Air Traffic Controller | +1.7% | 24,000 | 50 | |
| Instructional Designer | +1.6% | 248,700 | 86 | |
| Investment Banker | +1.4% | 531,000 | 89 | |
| Stock Trader | +1.4% | 531,000 | 89 | |
| Composer | +1.2% | 51,100 | 53 | |
| Loan Officer | +1.1% | 283,000 | 89 | |
| Security Guard | +0.9% | 1,294,300 | 39 | |
| Technical Writer | +0.8% | 46,400 | 96 | Yes – see why |
| Real Estate Broker | +0.8% | 103,500 | 76 | |
| Housekeeper | +0.6% | 1,332,100 | 13 | |
| Train Operator | +0.5% | 27,400 | 35 | |
| Travel Agent | +0.2% | 61,500 | 89 | |
| Detective | +0.2% | 120,500 | 54 | |
| Fashion Designer | +0.1% | 32,700 | 70 | |
| Actor | +0.0% | 67,500 | 54 | Yes – see why |
How to read this page
Employment change: BLS Employment Projections 2025–35. The BLS projects how many jobs each US occupation will have in 2035 from expected demand in the industries that employ it and from changes in how those industries staff their work. The projections assume a full-employment economy in 2035; they are not a forecast of AI's effect alone.
Several jobs on this site fall under one official occupation category, so they show the same projection. Elected officials and the armed forces have no BLS projection and are not listed.
“BLS cites AI” marks occupations whose BLS projection factor mentions artificial intelligence. The job page shows that reason in full.
Exposure index: calculated by ai-job-risk.net from four public datasets on how much of an occupation's tasks generative AI can do or is already used for. It is a relative measure, not a probability of losing the job, and it plays no part in the BLS projections.
Sources
Exposure index calculated by ai-job-risk.net from the datasets below (data as of October 15, 2026). US labour figures are from the BLS, unchanged.
- Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin & Rock, "GPTs are GPTs: Labor market impact potential of LLMs", Science (2024); data MIT licence
- Gmyrek, Berg, Kamiński, Konopczyński, Ładna, Nafradi, Rosłaniec, Troszyński. Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO Working Paper 140. Geneva: ILO, 2025. © ILO, CC BY 4.0
- Tomlinson, Jaffe, Wang, Counts & Suri, "Working with AI: Measuring the Occupational Implications of Generative AI", Microsoft Research; CC BY 4.0
- Anthropic Economic Index (job_exposure); CC BY
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections 2025–35 and AI exposure categories
The publishers did not prepare, review or endorse this site. Full citations, licences and method